What the Energy Industry Will Look Like in 20 Years–A View from the African Frontier

By Jorge De Morais | Founder & GM, Kaeso Energy Services

Jorge de Morais is an oil and gas leader and the visionary behind KAESO Energy Services, an award-winning regional local content company built on technical excellence, integrity, and long-term impact. With a strong foundation in upstream and production engineering, he brings hands-on industry expertise and clear strategic direction to every challenge he undertakes.

At the heart of Jorge’s leadership is a firm belief that sustainable growth starts with people. He is deeply committed to developing local talent, empowering young professionals, and creating pathways for the next generation to thrive within the energy sector. His passion for mentorship and knowledge-sharing reflects a long-term vision, focused not only on operational success today, but on building capable leaders for tomorrow.

Guided by strong ethical values, Jorge leads with fairness, accountability, and purpose, earning the trust of teams, partners, and clients alike. Through KAESO, he continues to champion local capacity building while delivering reliable, high-quality solutions in demanding environments.

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When I think about where the energy industry will be in 20 years, I do not start in a boardroom in Houston, London or Riyadh. I start in Luanda. I start with a continent whose population will have doubled, whose cities will be unrecognisable, and whose role in global energy will either be transformed, or extracted away once again.

At the Conferência Anual do Conteúdo Local 2026, I argued that Local Content is not a policy line item. It is a strategic lever for long-term economic transformation. Two decades from now, the companies and countries that understood this distinction will look very different from those that did not.

The trend that will shape the next two decades

The dominant narrative today is the energy transition. The deeper trend, in my view, is the industrialisation of the energy value chain in regions that have historically only supplied raw molecules and minerals.

Angola’s population is on track to grow from roughly 37 million today to over 75 million by 2050. The SADC region will approach 600 million people. That growth is coming whether we plan for it or not. The real question is whether our economies will be ready to sustain it.

The old equation – Youth → Jobs → Growth – is broken. Automation, robotics and advanced machinery are replacing the labour-intensive roles that once absorbed young populations. So the question for the next 20 years is not how to repeat the 20th-century model. It is how to industrialise in an era where machines are replacing the very jobs that once drove development.

Where the value will move: from Extraction to Transformation

I think about industrialisation in five levels: Extraction, Transformation, Manufacturing, Fiscal Policies & Financial Services, and Committed Intelligence. Most resource-rich economies, Angola included, are still concentrated at Level 1.

Over the next 20 years, the industry’s centre of gravity will shift toward Level 2. Transformation is where imports are reduced, where industries are born, and where economic independence begins. It is the bridge between raw resources and a diversified, resilient economy. Petrochemicals, fertilisers, refined products, critical minerals processing – this is the layer that will create durable wealth long after a barrel of oil has been sold.

Opportunities that will emerge for entrepreneurs

Capital will follow stability. Money goes where it feels safe and stays where it can grow. The countries that build macroeconomic stability, currency predictability and consistent policy will win the next investment cycle. Entrepreneurs who position themselves at that intersection will build the next generation of energy champions.

Concretely, I see opportunity in protected economic zones with reduced bureaucracy, smart industrial policies that support local production, strategic imports of machinery and technology, and disciplined limits on goods that can be produced locally. None of this is isolation. It is intentional growth.

And no single country in Southern Africa can industrialise alone. Angola and Mozambique as energy powerhouses, the DRC and Zambia in minerals, Namibia in logistics and uranium, South Africa in finance and manufacturing – individually we compete; collectively we become a force. The entrepreneurs who think regionally will outrun those who think nationally.

The skills future energy leaders will need

In 20 years, technical excellence will be table stakes. What will set leaders apart is the ability to operate across three layers at once: the engineering reality of the asset, the policy environment that shapes its economics, and the regional ecosystem that determines whether value stays at home. Future leaders will need to read a refinery, a finance ministry and a regional supply chain with the same fluency.

The path forward

For Angola, and for much of the continent, the opportunity is clear: move beyond extraction, invest in transformation, build petrochemical capacity, and lay the foundation for broader industrial ecosystems.

The future of Africa’s energy economy will not be extracted. It will be built.

Key Lessons for Future Energy Leaders

• Industrialisation is the strategy, not the by-product. Treat Local Content as a long-term lever for transformation, not a compliance checkbox.

• The value of the next 20 years sits at Level 2 – Transformation. Build, partner with, or invest in businesses that turn raw resources into refined, exportable industry.

• Capital follows stability. Whether you are a founder, executive or policymaker, your job is to make your environment investable – predictable currency, consistent policy, clear rules.

• Think regionally, not nationally. The most defensible energy businesses of the next two decades will be built across borders, not behind them.

• Master three languages – engineering, policy and ecosystem. The leaders who can move fluently between them will define the African energy industry of 2046.

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